Core Global Challenges (Post-1991)
3.6.1: Terrorism and Non-State Actors
The post-1991 era has seen terrorism evolve into a primary global security threat, characterized by its transnational reach, ideological motivations, and increasing lethality.
Evolution of Terrorism
State-sponsored Terrorism
While prevalent during the Cold War, it continues in various forms, with states providing financial, logistical, or ideological support to terrorist groups. Example: Pakistan's historical support to groups operating in Kashmir.
Religious Extremism
Post-1991 saw a significant rise in terrorism driven by extremist interpretations of religion, notably Islamist extremism. Seeks caliphates or ideological imposition through violence. Key characteristic: Transnational appeal and recruitment.
Cyber Terrorism
Emerging threat using internet tools for propaganda, recruitment, fundraising, planning, and direct attacks on critical infrastructure. Example: ISIS's social media use; concerns about power grid attacks.
Left-Wing and Right-Wing Extremism
Though religious extremism dominates, groups like Naxalism (India) and white supremacists (West) pose threats. Source: MHA, global extremism reports.
Narco-Terrorism
Linkages between drug trafficking organizations and terrorist groups, where drug money funds terror activities. Source: UNODC reports.
Major Terrorist Organizations
Al-Qaeda
Founded by Osama bin Laden (late 1980s). Ideology: Global jihad. Major Attacks: 9/11 (2001), US embassy bombings (1998). Status: Weakened but inspires regional groups.
ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria)
Emerged from Al-Qaeda in Iraq (2014). Ideology: Global caliphate, extreme violence, sophisticated online propaganda. Status: Territorial control diminished, but affiliates (ISIS-K) active (e.g., Moscow 2024 attack).
Boko Haram
Northeastern Nigeria. Ideology: "Western education is forbidden," seeks Islamic state. Tactics: Mass kidnappings (Chibok), bombings. Pledged allegiance to ISIS (2015).
Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT)
Pakistan-based, focused on India, particularly Kashmir. Ideology: Islamist, anti-India. Major Attacks: 2008 Mumbai attacks. Supported by elements within Pakistani establishment.
International Response and Challenges
- UN Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy (GCTS) (2006): Four pillars: addressing conducive conditions, preventing/combating terrorism, capacity building, ensuring human rights/rule of law.
- UN Security Council Resolutions: Sanctions (UNSCR 1267 targeting Al-Qaeda/Taliban/ISIS), criminalizing terrorist financing, preventing movement.
- UN Office of Counter-Terrorism (UNOCT): Established 2017 to lead GCTS implementation.
- Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate (CTED): Monitors UNSC resolutions.
- Financial Action Task Force (FATF): Inter-governmental body setting standards to combat money laundering and terrorist financing. (India is a member). Recent: Pakistan removed from 'grey list' (Oct 2022), UAE removed (Feb 2024).
- Lack of a universally agreed definition of terrorism: Hinders coordinated legal action. India's CCIT remains stalled.
- State-sponsorship and safe havens: Some states continue to support or tolerate terrorist groups.
- Balancing security and human rights: Counter-terrorism measures can sometimes infringe on civil liberties.
- Radicalization and online extremism: Difficult to monitor and counter.
- Foreign terrorist fighters: Returning fighters pose a significant threat.
- Financing of Terrorism: Evolving methods including cryptocurrencies.
3.6.2: Climate Change and Environmental Degradation
Recognized as an existential threat, climate change impacts are intensifying globally, demanding urgent and comprehensive action.
Historical Context of Human Impact on Environment
Industrial Revolution (late 18th century onwards)
Marked a turning point with large-scale burning of fossil fuels (coal, later oil and gas), leading to a significant increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. Source: IPCC reports.
Post-WWII "Great Acceleration"
Rapid industrialization, population growth, and consumerism further intensified resource depletion, pollution, and GHG emissions. Deforestation, intensive agriculture also contributed significantly.
Scientific Consensus, Global Warming, Extreme Weather Events
Scientific Consensus (IPCC AR6)
"It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land." Global surface temperature was 1.09°C higher in 2011–2020 than 1850–1900. (Source: IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report, 2023).
Recent Development: 2023 was the warmest year on record by a significant margin. January and February 2024 continued this trend of record warmth.
International Climate Regimes
- Adopted at the Rio Earth Summit.
- Objective: Stabilize GHG concentrations "at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system."
- Established principle of Common But Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC).
- Operationalized UNFCCC by committing industrialized countries (Annex I) to legally binding emission reduction targets.
- Introduced flexible mechanisms: Emissions Trading, Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), Joint Implementation (JI).
- US did not ratify; some countries withdrew.
- Landmark agreement, applicable to all countries.
- Goal: Keep global temperature rise well below 2°C (aim 1.5°C) above pre-industrial levels.
- Requires Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) from all parties, reviewed every 5 years ("ratchet mechanism").
- Aims for climate neutrality (net-zero emissions) by mid-century. Addresses adaptation, finance, technology transfer, loss and damage.
- Recent Development (COP28): "UAE Consensus" called for "transitioning away from fossil fuels." Operationalized the Loss and Damage Fund.
Climate Justice, Loss and Damage, India's Climate Action
Climate Justice
Frames climate change as an ethical and political issue. Highlights that the poorest and most vulnerable, who contributed least, suffer most. Calls for developed countries to take greater responsibility for mitigation and provide finance/technology.
Loss and Damage
Refers to adverse impacts occurring despite mitigation/adaptation (e.g., permanent loss of territory due to sea-level rise). Fund operationalized at COP28 with initial pledges, World Bank to host interim. Source: UNFCCC.
Updated NDCs (August 2022):
- Reduce emissions intensity of its GDP by 45% by 2030, from 2005 level.
- Achieve about 50% cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel-based energy resources by 2030.
- Create an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent through additional forest and tree cover by 2030 (original target).
Panchamrit Goals (announced at COP26, Glasgow):
- India will reach its non-fossil energy capacity to 500 GW by 2030.
- India will meet 50% of its energy requirements from renewable energy by 2030.
- India will reduce the total projected carbon emissions by one billion tonnes from now till 2030.
- By 2030, India will reduce the carbon intensity of its economy by less than 45%.
- By the year 2070, India will achieve the target of Net Zero.
Other initiatives: National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC), International Solar Alliance (ISA), Lifestyle for Environment (LiFE) Mission, Green Credit Program (launched at COP28).
3.6.3: Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs) and Disarmament Efforts
WMDs – nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons – pose a grave threat to international peace and security. The post-1991 era has seen complex challenges in controlling their spread.
Nuclear Proliferation
NPT (1968, indefinite extension 1995)
Pillars: Non-proliferation, disarmament, peaceful uses. Divides states into NWS (US, Russia, UK, France, China) and NNWS. Criticized as discriminatory. Non-signatories: India, Pakistan, Israel. North Korea withdrew.
CTBT (1996)
Bans all nuclear explosions. Not yet in force; requires ratification by 44 specific "Annex 2" states, including India, Pakistan, North Korea, USA, China, Israel, Iran, Egypt.
Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG)
Group of nuclear supplier countries controlling export of materials/tech to prevent proliferation. Operates by consensus. India seeks membership.
TPNW (2017, in force 2021)
Aims for total elimination of nuclear weapons. Opposed by all NWS and NATO members (undermines NPT, deterrence). India is not a signatory.
Chemical and Biological Weapons
CWC (1993, in force 1997)
Prohibits development, production, stockpiling, transfer, use of chemical weapons. Mandates destruction. Verification by OPCW. India is signatory.
BWC (1972, in force 1975)
Prohibits development, production, stockpiling, use of biological/toxin weapons. Lacks verification mechanism – major weakness. Dual-use nature of biotech is a challenge.
Current Affairs Links: Iran Nuclear Deal, North Korea Crisis
Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA) (2015)
Iran agreed to limit nuclear program for sanctions relief. US withdrew 2018; Iran increased activities. Efforts to revive stalled. Iran's enrichment levels concern IAEA/Western powers. Source: IAEA reports.
North Korea Crisis
DPRK develops nuclear/missile programs despite sanctions. Multiple tests (ICBMs). Six-party talks defunct. Recent: Intensified missile testing 2023-2024, declared nuclear status "irreversible." Increased military cooperation with Russia. Source: UN Panel of Experts, news.
3.6.4: Global Health Crises
The interconnectedness of the modern world makes it vulnerable to rapid spread of infectious diseases, with profound socio-economic consequences.
Major Pandemics and their Socio-Economic Impact
HIV/AIDS (1980s-present)
Millions of deaths, orphaned children, reduced workforce, strained healthcare, esp. sub-Saharan Africa. Progress with ART. Source: UNAIDS.
SARS (2002-2003)
Coronavirus, originated China. Contained but caused significant economic disruption (travel, tourism), highlighted global vulnerability.
Ebola (2014-2016 West Africa)
High fatality rate. Devastated health systems, required massive international response.
COVID-19 (2019-present)
Caused by SARS-CoV-2. Impact: Millions of deaths, overwhelmed healthcare, global recession, supply chain disruptions, job losses, increased poverty, mental health issues. Revealed weaknesses in global pandemic preparedness. Source: WHO, World Bank, IMF.
Role of WHO and Global Health Governance
- UN specialized agency for health.
- Role: Global health leadership, setting norms/standards, technical support, monitoring trends, coordinating emergencies (e.g., International Health Regulations - IHR 2005).
- Funding: Over-reliance on voluntary/earmarked contributions.
- Enforcement Powers: Limited power to enforce IHR compliance.
- Political Influence: Accusations of political pressure.
- Inequity: Disparities in access to healthcare, diagnostics, therapeutics, vaccines.
- Recent Development: Negotiations for new Pandemic Accord to strengthen preparedness and equitable access (77th World Health Assembly, May 2024, crucial deadline).
Health Diplomacy and Vaccine Equity
Health Diplomacy
Using health issues as a tool for foreign policy and international cooperation. Example: India's "Vaccine Maitri" initiative during COVID-19, supplying vaccines to numerous countries. Source: MEA.
Vaccine Equity
Fair and equitable access to vaccines for all. COVID-19 highlighted massive inequities ("vaccine nationalism"). COVAX Facility aimed for equitable access but faced challenges. Recent: Ongoing discussions on IP waivers (TRIPS waiver), technology transfer, strengthening local manufacturing to ensure future equity. India advocates for democratized global health architecture.
3.6.5: Refugee Crises and International Migration Patterns
The post-1991 world has witnessed unprecedented levels of displacement due to a confluence of factors, posing significant humanitarian and political challenges.
Drivers of Migration
- Conflict and War: Primary driver of forced displacement (e.g., Syria, Afghanistan, Ukraine, Sudan).
- Persecution: Based on race, religion, nationality, political opinion, or social group (e.g., Rohingya from Myanmar, Yazidis in Iraq).
- Climate Change: Slow-onset (sea-level rise, desertification) and rapid-onset (extreme weather) disasters. "Climate refugees" growing concern. Source: IPCC, UNHCR.
- Economic Opportunity: Voluntary migration for better livelihoods, often mixed with forced migration.
- Governance Deficits and Human Rights Violations: Lack of rule of law, political instability, state repression.
Major Refugee Crises (Examples)
Syria
Civil war since 2011 led to over 6.8 million refugees and similar IDPs. Source: UNHCR Global Trends Report.
Afghanistan
Decades of conflict, Taliban takeover (2021) resulted in millions of refugees (Pakistan, Iran) and large IDP population.
Myanmar - Rohingya
Persecution/violence against Rohingya minority, 2017 crackdown forced over 740,000 to Bangladesh. Source: UNHCR.
Ukraine
Russian invasion (2022) caused Europe's largest refugee crisis since WWII, millions to neighbors. Recent: Over 6.3 million refugees globally (UNHCR).
Sudan
Conflict since April 2023 led to massive internal displacement and refugee flows to Chad, Egypt, South Sudan. Source: UNHCR, OCHA.
International Refugee Law, UNHCR, Challenges for Host Countries
- 1951 Refugee Convention & 1967 Protocol: Cornerstone of international refugee protection. Defines refugee (well-founded fear of persecution). Establishes non-refoulement (not returning to danger).
- Limitation: India is not a signatory, citing porous borders/security, but adheres to non-refoulement customarily and hosts many refugees.
- UN agency mandated to lead/coordinate international action to protect refugees and resolve problems.
- Provides assistance, advocates rights, seeks durable solutions (repatriation, local integration, resettlement).
- Economic Strain: Pressure on public services, infrastructure, labor markets.
- Social Tensions: Friction with local communities over resources/cultural differences.
- Security Concerns: Risks of infiltration, radicalization, cross-border crime.
- Lack of International Burden-Sharing: Developing countries host ~85% of refugees, often with insufficient support.
- Protracted Refugee Situations: Many live in exile for years/decades with no clear solution.
3.6.6: Cyber Warfare, Information Age Challenges, and Disinformation
The Information Age has brought immense benefits but also new vulnerabilities, with cyberspace emerging as a new domain for conflict and contestation.
Rise of Cyberattacks
- State-sponsored Cyberattacks: Carried out by governments for espionage, sabotage (e.g., Stuxnet on Iran), or influence (e.g., alleged Russian interference in US elections, Chinese cyber espionage).
- Non-State Actors: Terrorist groups (propaganda, recruitment), criminal organizations (ransomware, data theft), hacktivist groups.
- Targets: Critical infrastructure (energy, finance, healthcare), government systems, private corporations, individuals.
- Methods: Malware, phishing, DDoS, ransomware. Recent: Increasing use of AI in attacks/defense. Ransomware remains major threat (e.g., AIIMS Delhi cyberattack 2022).
Data Privacy Concerns, Surveillance, Digital Divide
Data Privacy Concerns
Massive collection of personal data by corporations (Big Tech) and governments. Risks of data breaches, misuse, surveillance. India: Digital Personal Data Protection Act, 2023, for lawful data processing. Source: MeitY.
Surveillance
Government surveillance for national security (e.g., Pegasus spyware controversy). Corporate surveillance for advertising. Debate on balancing security needs with individual privacy.
Digital Divide
Inequality in access to digital technologies (internet, devices, skills) between and within countries. Exacerbates disparities in education, economy, services. India's Digital India aims to bridge this. Source: UNESCO, ITU.
Impact of Social Media and Disinformation Campaigns on Democracy
- Social Media: Facilitates citizen engagement, but also spreads misinformation, disinformation ("fake news"), hate speech. Creates echo chambers, polarizes opinion.
- Disinformation Campaigns: Deliberate spread of false information to deceive, manipulate public opinion, undermine trust, influence elections. Can be state-sponsored or by domestic actors.
- Impact on Democracy: Erodes informed public discourse, fuels social unrest, delegitimizes democratic processes. Recent: Growing concern about AI-generated deepfakes in disinformation, especially during elections. India's IT Rules, 2021, address online harms.
3.6.7: Rise of Populism, Nationalism, and Challenges to Democracy
The post-Cold War liberal democratic consensus has faced significant challenges from the resurgence of populist and nationalist movements in various parts of the world.
Causes
- Economic Inequality: Stagnant wages, job losses (globalization/automation), perception of unfair economic gains. Source: Piketty, World Inequality Report.
- Cultural Grievances: Sense of loss of identity/tradition/status, backlash against multiculturalism and social liberalism.
- Immigration: Concerns (often misinformation-fueled) about economic/cultural impact, leading to anti-immigrant sentiment.
- Erosion of Trust: Declining trust in mainstream political parties, institutions, media.
- Globalization: Perceived as undermining national sovereignty and local identities.
- Social Media: Amplifies populist messages, creates echo chambers.
Impact on Liberal Democracies and International Cooperation
Impact on Liberal Democracies
- Erosion of Democratic Norms: Challenge to checks/balances, judicial independence, press freedom, minority rights.
- Increased Polarization: Deepening societal divisions.
- Rise of "Illiberal Democracy": Elections held, but civil liberties weakened (e.g., Hungary, Poland).
- Examples: US (Trump presidency), Europe (far-right parties - France, Italy, Germany, Netherlands; Brexit). Recent elections show continued populist strength. Source: V-Dem Institute, Freedom House.
Impact on International Cooperation
- "My Country First" Approach: Prioritization of narrow national interests.
- Skepticism towards Multilateralism: Weakening of international institutions/treaties (e.g., US withdrawal from Paris Agreement).
- Trade Protectionism: Increased trade disputes and tariffs.
- Reduced Foreign Aid and Engagement: Some populist governments cut aid or adopt isolationist policies.
- Makes it harder to address global challenges.
3.6.8: Major Geopolitical Hotspots
Several regions continue to be flashpoints of tension and conflict, shaped by historical legacies and contemporary power rivalries.
Middle East Conflicts: Israel-Palestine & Syria & Iran
Israel-Palestine: Competing claims, 1948/1967 wars. Stalled peace, settlements, intra-Palestinian divisions. Recent: Major escalation after Hamas attack (Oct 2023), severe humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
Syria: Arab Spring protests escalated to civil war (2011). Complex conflict involving government, rebels, extremists, foreign powers (Russia, Iran, Turkey, US). Humanitarian crisis persists.
Iran: Tensions over nuclear program (see 3.6.3.3), regional influence (support for proxies), internal human rights. Faces US sanctions. Recent: Increasing assertiveness, direct strikes, proxy activities contributing to regional instability.
South China Sea Disputes
Historical Claims: China's "nine-dash line" overlaps with Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, Taiwan.
Current Maritime Law: UNCLOS provides EEZs. 2016 tribunal ruled against China's historical claims, rejected by China.
US-China Rivalry: US conducts FONOPs. China militarizing artificial islands. Vital shipping route, rich in resources. Recent: Increased China Coast Guard/militia aggression vs. Philippine vessels (e.g., Second Thomas Shoal). Growing US alignment with regional allies.
Ukraine Crisis
Historical Roots: Shared ties, Ukraine part of Russian Empire/Soviet Union. Independence 1991.
NATO Expansion: Russia views NATO expansion as threat. Ukraine's NATO aspirations a key trigger.
Current Conflict: 2014: Russia annexed Crimea, supported Donbas separatists. Feb 2022: Full-scale invasion. Impact: Humanitarian crisis, global energy/food impacts, reshaping European security, NATO strengthened. Recent: Protracted war, Ukraine counteroffensive mixed results. Western support ongoing but challenges. Russia consolidated control.
Taiwan Strait
One-China Policy: Most countries acknowledge Beijing's "One China" principle. US maintains unofficial relations with Taiwan, supplies defensive arms.
Historical Legacy: Chinese Civil War (1945-49) led to KMT retreat to Taiwan (ROC). PRC views Taiwan as renegade province, reunification by force if necessary.
US Position: Strategic ambiguity (not explicitly stating military defense), though recent Biden statements suggest clarity.
Recent Development: Increased Chinese military pressure (incursions, drills). Heightened Beijing rhetoric. US/allies increasing support. Taiwan's 2024 presidential election saw DPP candidate Lai Ching-te win (Beijing views as separatist).
Prelims-Ready Notes: Key Takeaways
Terrorism & Non-State Actors
- Evolution: State-sponsored -> Religious Extremism (Al-Qaeda, ISIS) -> Cyber Terrorism.
- Intl. Response: UN Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy (4 pillars), UNSC sanctions (1267 Committee), FATF.
- Challenge: No universal definition of terrorism (CCIT stalled).
Climate Change & Environment
- Cause: Anthropogenic GHG emissions. Science: IPCC consensus (1.09°C rise 2011-2020 vs 1850-1900).
- Regimes: UNFCCC (CBDR-RC), Kyoto, Paris Agreement (<2°C goal, NDCs, Net Zero by mid-century).
- Key Concepts: Climate Justice, Loss and Damage (Fund operationalized at COP28).
- India's Action: Updated NDCs (45% emission intensity, 50% non-fossil by 2030), Net Zero by 2070, LiFE, Green Credit.
WMD Proliferation & Disarmament
- Nuclear: NPT (NWS vs NNWS, India/Pak/Israel non-signatories), CTBT (not in force), NSG, TPNW (India not signatory).
- Chemical: CWC (OPCW verification, India signatory). Biological: BWC (no verification).
- Hotspots: Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA stalled), North Korea (ongoing tests).
Global Health Crises
- Major Pandemics: HIV/AIDS, SARS, Ebola, COVID-19 (massive health, economic, social disruption).
- WHO: UN agency for health, coordinates response (IHR 2005). Challenges: Funding, enforcement, inequity.
- Current: Pandemic Accord negotiations; Vaccine Equity (COVAX, TRIPS waiver debates). India's "Vaccine Maitri."
Refugee Crises & Migration
- Drivers: Conflict, persecution, climate change, economic.
- Major Crises: Syria, Afghanistan, Rohingya, Ukraine, Sudan.
- Law: 1951 Refugee Convention & 1967 Protocol (defines refugee, non-refoulement). India not signatory.
- UNHCR: UN refugee agency. Host Country Challenges: Economic strain, social tension, security.
Cyber Warfare & Disinformation
- Cyberattacks: State-sponsored (espionage, sabotage), Non-state (terror, crime). Targets: Critical infra.
- Data Privacy: Concerns over Big Tech/govt data collection. India: Digital Personal Data Protection Act, 2023.
- Digital Divide: Inequality in tech access.
- Disinformation: "Fake news," social media impact on democracy, deepfakes.
Populism & Challenges to Democracy
- Causes: Economic inequality, cultural grievances, immigration concerns, trust deficit.
- Impact on Democracies: Erosion of norms, polarization, "illiberal democracy."
- Impact on Intl. Cooperation: "My Country First," skepticism of multilateralism, protectionism.
Geopolitical Hotspots
- Middle East: Israel-Palestine (Gaza crisis), Syria (civil war), Iran (nuclear, regional influence).
- South China Sea: China's claims vs UNCLOS, US FONOPs, militarization.
- Ukraine Crisis: NATO expansion, Russian invasion (2022), global impact.
- Taiwan Strait: "One China" policy, PRC claims, US strategic ambiguity, increased PRC military activity.
Terrorist Organizations Comparison (Prelims Table)
| Feature | Al-Qaeda | ISIS/Daesh | Boko Haram | Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Origin | Afghanistan/Pakistan (late 80s) | Iraq/Syria (from AQI, 2014) | Nigeria (2002) | Pakistan (1987/1990) |
| Ideology | Global Jihad | Global Caliphate, Takfirism | Anti-Western edu., Islamic State | Islamist, Anti-India |
| Key Leader(s) | Osama bin Laden (fmr), Zawahiri (fmr) | Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi (fmr) | Abubakar Shekau (fmr) | Hafiz Saeed |
| Major Attack | 9/11 (2001) | Paris (2015), numerous in Iraq/Syria | Chibok Kidnapping (2014) | Mumbai 26/11 (2008) |
Mains-Ready Analytical Notes
Terrorism & Non-State Actors: Deeper Dive
- Defining Terrorism: Lack of universal definition hinders CCIT. "One man's terrorist is another's freedom fighter."
- Root Causes: Poverty, political grievances, ideology, state sponsorship – complex interplay.
- Balancing Security & Liberty: Counter-terrorism measures (surveillance, detention) vs. human rights.
- Effectiveness of Global Response: Sanctions often limited; military interventions can be counterproductive.
Historical: Shift from nationalist/separatist (IRA, LTTE) and left-wing to religiously motivated transnational terrorism (post-Cold War, Al-Qaeda, ISIS). Rise of lone-wolf attacks. Increased sophistication (cyber, drones).
Impact: Persistent threat to international peace, security, economy. Fuels Islamophobia. Leads to increased defense spending, diverts resources. Impacts foreign policy. Example: ISIS-K attack in Moscow (March 2024).
India: Cross-border terrorism from Pakistan (LeT, JeM), internal security (Maoism, NE insurgency). India's consistent push for CCIT.
Value-added: UN's 8th review of Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy (2023) emphasized addressing new threats like AI, drones. India hosted a special session of UN CTC (2022) focusing on this.
Climate Change & Environmental Degradation: Deeper Dive
- CBDR-RC vs. Universal Responsibility: Developed vs. developing country obligations.
- Climate Finance: Adequacy, accessibility, definition of $100 billion/year commitment.
- Fossil Fuel Phase-out vs. Phase-down: Contentious at COPs.
- Carbon Markets (Article 6): Ensuring environmental integrity. Geoengineering: Ethical and environmental risks.
Historical: Unabated GHG rise since Industrial Revolution. Growing certainty linking human activities to climate change. Shift from scientific debate to political/economic action (or inaction).
Impact: Threat multiplier (food insecurity, water scarcity, migration, conflict). Economic costs (damage, transition costs). Health impacts. Security implications ("climate security" recognized by UNSC).
India: Highly vulnerable (monsoon variability, sea-level rise, glacier melt). National Adaptation Fund for Climate Change (NAFCC). Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI).
Value-added: Global Stocktake (GST) at COP28 showed world off-track. Emphasized tripling renewable energy, doubling energy efficiency by 2030.
WMD Proliferation & Disarmament: Deeper Dive
- NPT's "Grand Bargain": Criticized as discriminatory by non-NWS due to insufficient disarmament progress by NWS.
- Deterrence Theory vs. Humanitarian Impact: Arguments for maintaining nuclear weapons vs. catastrophic consequences.
- Verification Challenges: Especially for BWC and clandestine nuclear programs.
- NSG Membership: India's bid highlights dilemma of integrating responsible nuclear states outside NPT.
Historical: Cold War arms race -> post-Cold War hopes for disarmament -> renewed proliferation concerns (NK, Iran) and modernization of arsenals by NWS. Erosion of arms control treaties.
Impact: Catastrophic if WMDs used. Risk of accidental/unauthorized use. Proliferation to unstable regions/non-state actors is major fear. WMD programs divert resources. Nuclear rhetoric (Ukraine conflict) increases anxiety.
India's "No First Use" policy and commitment to credible minimum deterrence. Consistent support for complete, verifiable, and non-discriminatory disarmament.
Value-added: "Nuclear winter" concept illustrates climatic consequences. Discussions on emerging tech (AI, cyber) impacting strategic stability of WMDs.
Global Health Crises: Deeper Dive
- WHO Reforms: Need for more funding, authority, independence.
- Equity in Global Health: Access to medicines, vaccines (TRIPS waiver debate).
- Sovereignty vs. Global Health Security: Balancing national prerogatives with need for transparency during outbreaks (IHR reforms).
- "One Health" Approach: Recognizing interconnectedness of human, animal, and environmental health.
Historical: Increased frequency of emerging infectious diseases (zoonotic spillover). Globalization accelerates spread. Growing antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a "silent pandemic."
Impact: Pandemics cause massive loss of life, cripple economies, deepen inequalities. Strain healthcare systems. Geopolitical implications: blame games, competition for resources, health diplomacy.
India: Ayushman Bharat (PM-JAY). India's role as "pharmacy of the world." National Digital Health Mission.
Value-added: Link to SDGs (SDG 3: Good Health). Importance of resilient health systems. "100 Days Mission" (G7 initiative) for rapid pandemic response.
Refugee Crises & International Migration Patterns: Deeper Dive
- Burden Sharing: Developed countries' responsibility to support host nations/resettle.
- Definition of "Refugee": Should it include "climate refugees" or those fleeing generalized violence?
- Integration vs. Encampment: Policies for managing refugee populations.
- Non-refoulement vs. National Security: Balancing humanitarian obligations with security concerns.
- India's Stance: Not signing 1951 Convention but tradition of hosting. Debate on domestic refugee law.
Historical: Post-WWII saw creation of UNHCR and 1951 Convention. Post-Cold War conflicts led to new waves. Climate change emerging driver. Record displacement levels (over 110 million by mid-2023 - UNHCR).
Impact: Humanitarian crises, pressure on host resources. Can fuel political instability/xenophobia. Brain drain from origin countries. Affects international relations/border management.
India has a tradition of hosting refugees (e.g., Tibetans, Sri Lankan Tamils, Chakmas) despite not being a signatory to the 1951 Convention.
Value-added: Global Compact on Refugees (2018) for more predictable/equitable responsibility-sharing. Link to SDGs (SDG 16: Peace, Justice).
Cyber Warfare, Information Age Challenges & Disinformation: Deeper Dive
- Attribution of Cyberattacks: Difficult to definitively attribute, complicating response.
- International Norms in Cyberspace: Lack of universally agreed rules of engagement (UN GGE, OEWG discussions).
- Data Governance: Balancing innovation, economic benefits of data, individual privacy, state security. Data localization debates.
- Regulating Big Tech: Content moderation, algorithmic bias, monopoly power.
- Freedom of Speech vs. Countering Disinformation: How to tackle harmful content without censorship.
Historical: From isolated hacking incidents to sophisticated state-sponsored operations and cybercrime as major industry. Rapid evolution of technology (AI, IoT) creates new vulnerabilities.
Impact: Threat to critical national infrastructure. Economic losses from cybercrime. Erosion of trust in information/institutions. Impact on electoral integrity, social cohesion. Digital divide exacerbates inequalities.
India: CERT-In is national nodal agency for cyber security. National Cyber Security Strategy (in progress). AIIMS Delhi ransomware attack (2022). Concerns over AI-generated deepfakes.
Value-added: Budapest Convention on Cybercrime (Council of Europe) – India not signatory but generally aligns. India's push for a UN convention on cybercrime.
Rise of Populism, Nationalism & Challenges to Democracy: Deeper Dive
- Populism: Threat or Corrective to Democracy? Some argue it gives voice to marginalized, others see it as undermining institutions.
- Defining Populism: "Pure people" vs. "corrupt elite" rhetoric is common.
- Role of Social Media: Amplifier or root cause?
- Globalization's Discontents: How to make globalization more inclusive.
Historical: Populism not new (US late 19th C, Latin America 20th C). Current wave notable for global spread and impact on established Western democracies. Nationalism resurgent after post-Cold War optimism.
Impact: Strains democratic institutions (checks/balances, rule of law, minority rights). Increases political polarization. Weakens international cooperation/multilateralism. Can lead to protectionism, anti-immigrant sentiment.
Examples: Brexit (2016), election of Donald Trump (2016), rise of far-right parties in Europe (e.g., Netherlands, Argentina elections 2023). Concerns about democratic backsliding (V-Dem, Freedom House).
Value-added: Connection to "post-truth" politics. Challenge of upholding liberal values in an era of resurgent identity politics.
Major Geopolitical Hotspots: Deeper Dive
- Intervention vs. Sovereignty: When/how should international community intervene?
- Effectiveness of Sanctions: Impact on target regimes vs. civilian populations.
- Role of Great Powers: Competition and cooperation among major powers (US, China, Russia) shape regional dynamics.
- Resource Conflicts: Competition for energy, water, strategic minerals often underlies tensions.
Historical: Many hotspots have deep historical roots (colonial legacies, ethnic/sectarian divides, unresolved territorial disputes). Post-Cold War power vacuums and shifts have reshaped some conflicts.
Impact: Threats to regional/global stability. Humanitarian suffering, refugee flows. Disruption of trade, energy supplies. Proxy wars, arms proliferation. Challenges to international law/norms.
Middle East: Ongoing Gaza crisis (since Oct 2023) with thousands of casualties, severe humanitarian impact (UN OCHA reports). Abraham Accords offered shift, but Palestine remains central.
South China Sea: China's growing naval power, assertive actions. Philippines invoking Mutual Defense Treaty with US.
Ukraine: War re-evaluated European security, NATO's role, global energy/food markets. (IMF/World Bank reports on economic impact).
Taiwan: Increasingly seen as most dangerous flashpoint for US-China conflict. Taiwan's key role in global semiconductor supply chain adds economic dimension.
Value-added: Importance of diplomatic solutions, preventive diplomacy. India's balancing act, pursuit of multi-alignment. India's stand on Ukraine: advocating dialogue, respect for sovereignty/territorial integrity.
UPSC Previous Year Questions (PYQs)
Prelims MCQs
1. Consider the following statements: (UPSC Prelims 2022)
- The Climate Group is an international non-profit organization that drives climate action by building large networks and running them.
- The International Energy Agency in partnership with the Climate Group launched a global initiative "EP100".
- EP100 brings together leading companies committed to driving innovation in energy efficiency and increasing competitiveness while delivering on emission reduction goals.
- Some Indian companies are members of EP100.
- The International Energy Agency is the Secretariat to the "Under2 Coalition".
Which of the statements given above are correct?
- (a) 1, 2, 4 and 5
- (b) 1, 3 and 4 only
- (c) 2, 3 and 5 only
- (d) 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5
Answer: (b)
Hint/Explanation: Statement 2 is incorrect; Climate Group launched EP100 (with The Alliance to Save Energy). Statement 5 is incorrect; The Climate Group is secretariat to Under2 Coalition. Focuses on international climate initiatives and India's participation.
2. With reference to the "United Nations Credentials Committee", consider the following statements: (UPSC Prelims 2022)
- It is a committee set up by the UN Security Council and works under its supervision.
- It traditionally meets in March, June and September every year.
- It assesses the credentials of all UN members before submitting a report to the General Assembly for approval.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
- (a) 3 only
- (b) 1 and 3
- (c) 2 and 3
- (d) 1 and 2
Answer: (a)
Hint/Explanation: Statement 1 is incorrect; it's a UN General Assembly committee. Statement 2 is incorrect; it meets as needed, typically at beginning of GA session. This question touches on UN functioning, relevant to international responses to global issues.
3. "Rapid Financing Instrument" and "Rapid Credit Facility" are related to the provisions of lending by which one of the following? (UPSC Prelims 2022)
- (a) Asian Development Bank
- (b) International Monetary Fund
- (c) United Nations Environment Programme Finance Initiative
- (d) World Bank
Answer: (b)
Hint/Explanation: These are lending facilities of the IMF, often used during crises like pandemics or economic shocks. Relevant to global economic stability and crisis response.
Mains Questions
1. ‘The most significant achievement of modern law in India is the constitutionalization of environmental problems by the Supreme Court.’ Discuss this statement with the help of relevant case laws. (UPSC Mains 2022, GS Paper 2)
- Introduce constitutional provisions related to environment (Art 21, 48A, 51A(g)).
- Discuss SC's role in expanding Art 21 (right to healthy environment).
- Cite key case laws: M.C. Mehta cases (Oleum gas leak, Ganga pollution, vehicular pollution), Vellore Citizens' Welfare Forum (Precautionary Principle, Polluter Pays), T.N. Godavarman Thirumulpad (forest conservation).
- Explain how SC filled legislative/executive gaps, issued guidelines, set up committees.
- Acknowledge limitations (implementation, judicial overreach concerns).
- Conclude on the transformative impact of judicial activism in environmental protection.
2. What are the main socio-economic implications arising out of the spread of multi-drug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (XDR-TB) in India? What measures should be taken to combat this menace? (UPSC Mains 2019, GS Paper 3 - adapted)
Socio-economic implications:
- Increased treatment cost and duration (catastrophic health expenditure for families).
- Loss of productivity, wage loss, unemployment.
- Stigmatization and social exclusion.
- Increased burden on public health system.
- Higher mortality and morbidity.
- Impact on vulnerable groups (poor, malnourished).
Measures:
- Strengthening DOTS and programmatic management of drug-resistant TB (PMDT).
- Ensuring rational drug use, regulating sale of anti-TB drugs.
- Improving diagnostic facilities (CBNAAT, culture tests).
- Research and development for new drugs and shorter regimens.
- Nutritional support for patients.
- Counselling and psycho-social support.
- Public awareness and de-stigmatization campaigns.
- Strengthening infection control measures in healthcare settings.
- International collaboration (WHO guidelines, technical support).
3. The UN Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy is a unique global instrument to enhance national, regional and international efforts to counter terrorism. Discuss its key pillars and the challenges in its implementation. (UPSC Mains - model question)
- Briefly introduce the UNGCTS (2006) and its significance as a consensus document.
- Explain its four pillars: Addressing conditions conducive to terrorism, Preventing/combating terrorism, Building states' capacity, Ensuring human rights and rule of law.
- Discuss challenges in implementation: Lack of universal definition of terrorism (stalls CCIT), State sovereignty concerns vs. international obligations, Insufficient resources/capacity, Difficulties countering online radicalization/financing, Balancing security vs. human rights, Lack of political will/state complicity, Complexity of addressing root causes.
- Conclude with India's role and suggestions for strengthening the strategy.